BETTING GLOSSARY

Closing Line Value vs Expected Value

CLV tells you whether you beat the market. EV tells you whether the price is profitable against your own model. They overlap, but they are not the same thing.

Definition

Expected value measures whether the bet is good according to your probability estimate. Closing line value measures whether the market moved in your favor before kickoff. Strong bettors usually care about both.

Use it with a tool

Check the EV side of the equation

Why it matters

A bet can have positive EV without landing CLV, and a bet can beat the close without being a long-term edge if your process is weak. Understanding the difference keeps you from using the wrong scoreboard.

Example

You bet a side at 2.10 and the market closes 1.95. You likely beat the close, which is good CLV. Whether the bet had positive EV still depends on your true win probability estimate.