Betting Strategies

Deep dives into the mathematical concepts that separate winners from losers.

Value Betting

The cornerstone of all profitable betting. Learn how to identify when the bookmaker's implied probability is lower than the true probability of an outcome.

Kelly Criterion

Optimal sizing for your bets. A mathematical formula that determines the exact percentage of your bankroll to wager based on your edge.

Hedging & Arbitrage

Risk-free profit strategies. How to exploit price differences between bookmakers to guarantee a return regardless of the outcome.

Expected Goals (xG)

Advance football analytics. Using chances created and conceded to predict future performance better than actual goals scored.

Sport-Specific Deep Dives

🎾 Tennis Betting Guide

Tennis provides excellent betting opportunities as it's an individual sport with comprehensive statistics. Surface type (hard, clay, grass) greatly affects performance. Head-to-head records are particularly relevant in tennis. Consider physical condition, especially in Grand Slams with best-of-five format.

Key Factors

  • • Surface specialization (Clay vs Hard)
  • • Tournament motivation (Grand Slam vs ATP 250)
  • • First serve percentage stats

🏈 NFL Betting Guide

The point spread is king in football betting. Week-to-week variance can be high, making research essential. Consider divisional rivalries, offensive/defensive matchups, and weather conditions for outdoor games. Prime-time games often see unique betting patterns.

Key Factors

  • • Offensive Line vs Defensive Line matchups
  • • Injury reports (especially QB and OT)
  • • Weather impact on Unders