OFFICIAL GROUP DRAW

Group D World Cup 2026 odds, teams, and betting guide

Official FIFA group order: USA · Paraguay · Australia · Turkey. The USA draw the host narrative, but Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia make Group D one of the more evenly priced groups once badge value is stripped out.

Featured team

USA lead Bettista's current model, but this group is priced closer than the badges alone suggest.

Projected points line

4 points is the first meaningful qualification line in Group D, especially with third-place routes still in play.

Venue path

Los Angeles -> Seattle -> San Francisco Bay Area define the climate, recovery, and altitude pattern that shapes this group's pricing.

64% qualify

USA

USA project as a host premium team in Group D. The sharper angle is usually whether 3.20 group-winner pricing, 64% modeled qualification odds, and 620 travel miles all point in the same direction. The USA draw the host narrative, but Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia make Group D one of the more evenly priced groups once badge value is stripped out.

Group winner 3.20 · 620 miles

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20% qualify

Paraguay

Paraguay project as a balanced team in Group D. The sharper angle is usually whether 11.80 group-winner pricing, 20% modeled qualification odds, and 1,360 travel miles all point in the same direction. The USA draw the host narrative, but Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia make Group D one of the more evenly priced groups once badge value is stripped out.

Group winner 11.80 · 1,360 miles

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24% qualify

Australia

Australia project as a balanced team in Group D. The sharper angle is usually whether 9.10 group-winner pricing, 24% modeled qualification odds, and 1,840 travel miles all point in the same direction. The USA draw the host narrative, but Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia make Group D one of the more evenly priced groups once badge value is stripped out.

Group winner 9.10 · 1,840 miles

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39% qualify

Turkey

Turkey project as a balanced team in Group D. The sharper angle is usually whether 4.90 group-winner pricing, 39% modeled qualification odds, and 1,480 travel miles all point in the same direction. The USA draw the host narrative, but Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia make Group D one of the more evenly priced groups once badge value is stripped out.

Group winner 4.90 · 1,480 miles

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Projected qualification table

Central data model
TeamQualifyGroup WinnerHistoric Win RateTravel Miles
USA64%3.200.38620
Turkey39%4.900.271,480
Australia24%9.100.271,840
Paraguay20%11.800.281,360
Group winner betting

Group D winner betting: how to compare the prices

The useful way to price Group D is to compare group-winner odds with the qualification path, travel burden, and fixture order. A short favorite can still be a poor bet if the market already prices a clean route, while a second seed can become interesting when the venue path or points line is easier than the headline odds imply.

Check Group D qualification math

Points threshold, projected table, and third-place path.

Convert group winner odds

Turn decimal, fractional, or American odds into implied probability.

Run an EV check

Compare your true group winner estimate with the market price.

Venue and altitude notes

  • Los Angeles · SoFi Stadium · 239 ft
  • Seattle · Lumen Field · 174 ft
  • San Francisco Bay Area · Levi's Stadium · 43 ft

Next reads

Open qualification math

Projected points line, probability table, and travel pressure for Group D.

USA travel schedule

See the stadium sequence, mileage, and recovery context behind USA's group path.

Turkey travel schedule

See the stadium sequence, mileage, and recovery context behind Turkey's group path.