OFFICIAL GROUP DRAW

Group I World Cup 2026 odds, teams, and betting guide

Official FIFA group order: France · Senegal · Iraq · Norway. France draw the headline weight, but Senegal, Norway, and Iraq make Group I one of the few groups where five points may be the cleaner safety line.

Featured team

France lead Bettista's current model, but this group is priced closer than the badges alone suggest.

Projected points line

5 points is the first meaningful qualification line in Group I, especially with third-place routes still in play.

Venue path

Boston -> Philadelphia -> Toronto define the climate, recovery, and altitude pattern that shapes this group's pricing.

82% qualify

France

France project as a public premium team in Group I. The sharper angle is usually whether 1.82 group-winner pricing, 82% modeled qualification odds, and 1,640 travel miles all point in the same direction. France draw the headline weight, but Senegal, Norway, and Iraq make Group I one of the few groups where five points may be the cleaner safety line.

Group winner 1.82 · 1,640 miles

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49% qualify

Senegal

Senegal project as a undervalued team in Group I. The sharper angle is usually whether 3.90 group-winner pricing, 49% modeled qualification odds, and 1,140 travel miles all point in the same direction. France draw the headline weight, but Senegal, Norway, and Iraq make Group I one of the few groups where five points may be the cleaner safety line.

Group winner 3.90 · 1,140 miles

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15% qualify

Iraq

Iraq project as a balanced team in Group I. The sharper angle is usually whether 14.00 group-winner pricing, 15% modeled qualification odds, and 1,580 travel miles all point in the same direction. France draw the headline weight, but Senegal, Norway, and Iraq make Group I one of the few groups where five points may be the cleaner safety line.

Group winner 14.00 · 1,580 miles

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27% qualify

Norway

Norway project as a balanced team in Group I. The sharper angle is usually whether 8.10 group-winner pricing, 27% modeled qualification odds, and 1,930 travel miles all point in the same direction. France draw the headline weight, but Senegal, Norway, and Iraq make Group I one of the few groups where five points may be the cleaner safety line.

Group winner 8.10 · 1,930 miles

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Projected qualification table

Central data model
TeamQualifyGroup WinnerHistoric Win RateTravel Miles
France82%1.820.561,640
Senegal49%3.900.351,140
Norway27%8.100.221,930
Iraq15%14.000.091,580
Group winner betting

Group I winner betting: how to compare the prices

The useful way to price Group I is to compare group-winner odds with the qualification path, travel burden, and fixture order. A short favorite can still be a poor bet if the market already prices a clean route, while a second seed can become interesting when the venue path or points line is easier than the headline odds imply.

Venue and altitude notes

  • Boston · Gillette Stadium · 151 ft
  • Philadelphia · Lincoln Financial Field · 39 ft
  • Toronto · BMO Field · 250 ft