Group B qualification math
Canada open at home, Switzerland bring the cleanest numbers, and the east-to-west venue split should keep Group B volatile deep into matchday three. Bettista's model treats 4 points as the first meaningful qualification threshold in this group.
Projected points line
Most modeled paths into the top two start at 4 points in Group B.
Travel context
Toronto -> Vancouver -> Seattle shape the recovery burden in this group.
Most likely group winner
Canada lead the model, but second place is where the sharpest market mistakes usually appear.
Projected qualification table
Central data template| Team | Qualify | Group Winner | Historic Win Rate | Travel Miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 46% | 4.90 | 0.22 | 1,410 |
| Switzerland | 45% | 4.80 | 0.37 | 1,490 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 28% | 8.10 | 0.17 | 1,340 |
| Qatar | 17% | 12.50 | 0.12 | 1,710 |
Why 4 points matter
In Bettista's tournament model, 4 points create the first realistic qualification foothold in Group B. Four-point groups usually stay alive until the final matchday, while five-point groups often reward teams that avoid the one expensive early loss.
That is why the best betting angle is often not the favorite to win the group. It is the second-ticket price, the draw market in the biggest tactical fixture, or the team whose travel route makes a late-match fade more likely.
Venue and altitude notes
- Toronto · BMO Field · 250 ft
- Vancouver · BC Place · 230 ft
- Seattle · Lumen Field · 174 ft
Canada travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Canada's group path.
Open travel pageSwitzerland travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Switzerland's group path.
Open travel pageBosnia and Herzegovina travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Bosnia and Herzegovina's group path.
Open travel pageQatar travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Qatar's group path.
Open travel page