Group E qualification math
Germany lead the pricing, but Ecuador and Ivory Coast both profile as live second-ticket threats while Curacao supply one of the tournament's clearest underdog stories. Bettista's model treats 4 points as the first meaningful qualification threshold in this group.
Projected points line
Most modeled paths into the top two start at 4 points in Group E.
Travel context
Philadelphia -> Houston -> Toronto shape the recovery burden in this group.
Most likely group winner
Germany lead the model, but second place is where the sharpest market mistakes usually appear.
Projected qualification table
Central data template| Team | Qualify | Group Winner | Historic Win Rate | Travel Miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 72% | 2.05 | 0.58 | 1,560 |
| Ivory Coast | 34% | 5.40 | 0.21 | 1,460 |
| Ecuador | 30% | 6.80 | 0.30 | 1,510 |
| Curacao | 14% | 15.50 | 0.10 | 1,420 |
Why 4 points matter
In Bettista's tournament model, 4 points create the first realistic qualification foothold in Group E. Four-point groups usually stay alive until the final matchday, while five-point groups often reward teams that avoid the one expensive early loss.
That is why the best betting angle is often not the favorite to win the group. It is the second-ticket price, the draw market in the biggest tactical fixture, or the team whose travel route makes a late-match fade more likely.
Venue and altitude notes
- Philadelphia · Lincoln Financial Field · 39 ft
- Houston · NRG Stadium · 80 ft
- Toronto · BMO Field · 250 ft
Germany travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Germany's group path.
Open travel pageIvory Coast travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Ivory Coast's group path.
Open travel pageEcuador travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Ecuador's group path.
Open travel pageCuracao travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Curacao's group path.
Open travel page