Group F qualification math
Netherlands and Japan set the market tone, but Sweden and Tunisia keep Group F compact enough that one low-event result could reshape the whole section. Bettista's model treats 4 points as the first meaningful qualification threshold in this group.
Projected points line
Most modeled paths into the top two start at 4 points in Group F.
Travel context
Dallas -> Houston -> Monterrey shape the recovery burden in this group.
Most likely group winner
Netherlands lead the model, but second place is where the sharpest market mistakes usually appear.
Projected qualification table
Central data template| Team | Qualify | Group Winner | Historic Win Rate | Travel Miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 66% | 2.35 | 0.50 | 1,910 |
| Japan | 42% | 5.80 | 0.34 | 1,690 |
| Sweden | 33% | 6.10 | 0.31 | 1,490 |
| Tunisia | 20% | 9.90 | 0.18 | 1,190 |
Why 4 points matter
In Bettista's tournament model, 4 points create the first realistic qualification foothold in Group F. Four-point groups usually stay alive until the final matchday, while five-point groups often reward teams that avoid the one expensive early loss.
That is why the best betting angle is often not the favorite to win the group. It is the second-ticket price, the draw market in the biggest tactical fixture, or the team whose travel route makes a late-match fade more likely.
Venue and altitude notes
- Dallas · AT&T Stadium · 430 ft
- Houston · NRG Stadium · 80 ft
- Monterrey · Estadio BBVA · 1,770 ft
Netherlands travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Netherlands's group path.
Open travel pageJapan travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Japan's group path.
Open travel pageSweden travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Sweden's group path.
Open travel pageTunisia travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Tunisia's group path.
Open travel page