Group G qualification math
Belgium get the shortest number, but Egypt, IR Iran, and New Zealand make Group G a clean test of whether technical control can survive a very different set of match scripts. Bettista's model treats 4 points as the first meaningful qualification threshold in this group.
Projected points line
Most modeled paths into the top two start at 4 points in Group G.
Travel context
Los Angeles -> Seattle -> Vancouver shape the recovery burden in this group.
Most likely group winner
Belgium lead the model, but second place is where the sharpest market mistakes usually appear.
Projected qualification table
Central data template| Team | Qualify | Group Winner | Historic Win Rate | Travel Miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 61% | 2.60 | 0.46 | 1,180 |
| Egypt | 26% | 7.60 | 0.20 | 1,210 |
| IR Iran | 19% | 12.40 | 0.21 | 1,490 |
| New Zealand | 18% | 11.50 | 0.14 | 1,920 |
Why 4 points matter
In Bettista's tournament model, 4 points create the first realistic qualification foothold in Group G. Four-point groups usually stay alive until the final matchday, while five-point groups often reward teams that avoid the one expensive early loss.
That is why the best betting angle is often not the favorite to win the group. It is the second-ticket price, the draw market in the biggest tactical fixture, or the team whose travel route makes a late-match fade more likely.
Venue and altitude notes
- Los Angeles · SoFi Stadium · 239 ft
- Seattle · Lumen Field · 174 ft
- Vancouver · BC Place · 230 ft
Belgium travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Belgium's group path.
Open travel pageEgypt travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for Egypt's group path.
Open travel pageIR Iran travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for IR Iran's group path.
Open travel pageNew Zealand travel schedule
See stadium sequence, mileage, and why recovery matters for New Zealand's group path.
Open travel page