OFFICIAL GROUP DRAW

Group F World Cup 2026 odds, teams, and betting guide

Official FIFA group order: Netherlands · Japan · Sweden · Tunisia. Netherlands and Japan set the market tone, but Sweden and Tunisia keep Group F compact enough that one low-event result could reshape the whole section.

Featured team

Netherlands lead Bettista's current model, but this group is priced closer than the badges alone suggest.

Projected points line

4 points is the first meaningful qualification line in Group F, especially with third-place routes still in play.

Venue path

Dallas -> Houston -> Monterrey define the climate, recovery, and altitude pattern that shapes this group's pricing.

66% qualify

Netherlands

Netherlands project as a balanced team in Group F. The sharper angle is usually whether 2.35 group-winner pricing, 66% modeled qualification odds, and 1,910 travel miles all point in the same direction. Netherlands and Japan set the market tone, but Sweden and Tunisia keep Group F compact enough that one low-event result could reshape the whole section.

Group winner 2.35 · 1,910 miles

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42% qualify

Japan

Japan project as a undervalued team in Group F. The sharper angle is usually whether 5.80 group-winner pricing, 42% modeled qualification odds, and 1,690 travel miles all point in the same direction. Netherlands and Japan set the market tone, but Sweden and Tunisia keep Group F compact enough that one low-event result could reshape the whole section.

Group winner 5.80 · 1,690 miles

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33% qualify

Sweden

Sweden project as a balanced team in Group F. The sharper angle is usually whether 6.10 group-winner pricing, 33% modeled qualification odds, and 1,490 travel miles all point in the same direction. Netherlands and Japan set the market tone, but Sweden and Tunisia keep Group F compact enough that one low-event result could reshape the whole section.

Group winner 6.10 · 1,490 miles

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20% qualify

Tunisia

Tunisia project as a balanced team in Group F. The sharper angle is usually whether 9.90 group-winner pricing, 20% modeled qualification odds, and 1,190 travel miles all point in the same direction. Netherlands and Japan set the market tone, but Sweden and Tunisia keep Group F compact enough that one low-event result could reshape the whole section.

Group winner 9.90 · 1,190 miles

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Projected qualification table

Central data model
TeamQualifyGroup WinnerHistoric Win RateTravel Miles
Netherlands66%2.350.501,910
Japan42%5.800.341,690
Sweden33%6.100.311,490
Tunisia20%9.900.181,190
Group winner betting

Group F winner betting: how to compare the prices

The useful way to price Group F is to compare group-winner odds with the qualification path, travel burden, and fixture order. A short favorite can still be a poor bet if the market already prices a clean route, while a second seed can become interesting when the venue path or points line is easier than the headline odds imply.

Check Group F qualification math

Points threshold, projected table, and third-place path.

Convert group winner odds

Turn decimal, fractional, or American odds into implied probability.

Run an EV check

Compare your true group winner estimate with the market price.

Venue and altitude notes

  • Dallas · AT&T Stadium · 430 ft
  • Houston · NRG Stadium · 80 ft
  • Monterrey · Estadio BBVA · 1,770 ft

Next reads

Open qualification math

Projected points line, probability table, and travel pressure for Group F.

Netherlands travel schedule

See the stadium sequence, mileage, and recovery context behind Netherlands's group path.

Japan travel schedule

See the stadium sequence, mileage, and recovery context behind Japan's group path.